The UK is one of the world’s leading markets for sports betting, with the industry valued at an estimated £4 billion. With around 5-6% of UK punters placing regular bets, there is a diverse array of betting strategies. Yet, amidst this variety, one particularly questionable tactic stands out: relying on gut instinct.
According to third-party sources, 6 in 10 UK bettors trust their gut in everyday life when making decisions—choosing intuition over analytical reasoning or research.
And based on our recent Censuswide survey of 1,000 regular UK sports bettors, 59.48% of these note that they are confident when trusting their gut.
It was Britain’s irrational trust in their intuition that inspired our latest campaign, “Gut Instincts”, which encourages bettors to challenge this approach and adopt more informed, data-driven strategies.
The goal? To help bettors understand the risks of betting on intuition alone and inspire them to make smarter, more reliable choices.
Just How Many UK Punters Bet Based on Their Gut?
Our analysis reveals that 54.49% of UK bettors regularly trust their gut instincts when placing sports bets. Notably, women are more inclined to rely on intuition than men, with 57.48% of female bettors preferring gut feelings over data, compared to 52.66% of their male counterparts.
Among different age groups, Millennials and Generation Y (ages 28-34) are the most likely to bet based on intuition, with 55.13% preferring this method. In contrast, the Silent Generation (ages 79+) is the least likely to follow their gut, at 50%.
But Just How Many Bettors Regret Trusting Their Gut?
A third (32%) of British punters often regret trusting their instincts—men (33.98%) more so than women (29.40%). In fact, we can reveal that if you’re a man aged 28-44, live in Bristol and commonly bet on tennis, you have the highest probability of being let down by your instincts.
Worryingly, 7% of betting Brits never regret making choices based on their gut. The reasoning? We’re placing our own bets on there being a high probability of Great British denial.
Do Intuitive Bettors Learn from Their Mistakes?
Over two-thirds of British bettors (64.67%) who regularly rely on their intuition admitted that making a calculated bet allows them to make better decisions than betting based on a “feeling”. There were only 9.18% who disagreed with this.
Men (65.54%) are slightly more likely than women (63.25%) to acknowledge that research made them better bettors, along with punters aged 28-44, those betting on basketball, and people living in Cardiff.
The Silent Generation (25%) and people from Southampton (54%) were the least likely to admit that researched betting led to better decision-making.
Would Seasoned Punters Advise First-Time Bettors Against Relying on Gut Instincts?
Concerningly, 16.87% believe there’s no problem with first-time bettors relying on their instincts for decision-making. Fortunately, the majority—54.09%—advise against this approach, suggesting that new bettors should avoid depending solely on gut feelings. Additionally, 70% recommend that novices conduct more thorough research before placing bets.
Despite this, 6.99% of UK bettors still encourage first-timers to stick with their gut instincts rather than research. This still equates to a staggering 234,395 British bettors.
Further key findings:
- 69% of cricket fans would advise betting novices to trust research over gut feeling.
- Football fans are the most likely to encourage first-time bettors to do more extensive research when betting on sport (73%).
Gut-instincts: The UK Punter’s Understanding of Risk
Do Intuitive Bettors Recognise the Risk of Intuitive Betting?
After consistently betting based on intuition, 62.97% of UK bettors recognise that initial success with gut feelings often leads to a “slippery slope” toward greater betting risks. Additionally, 73.35% acknowledge that relying on intuition is riskier than employing data-driven methods. Generation Z stands out as the most aware of this, with 78.71% recognising the heightened risks of betting based on gut instincts.
Despite this awareness, it’s important to note that nearly a quarter of British sports bettors still do not view intuition-based betting as more dangerous than more calculated approaches.
Further key findings:
- Cardiff-based bettors lead in advocating for research over gut instinct, with 85.19% of them encouraging first-time bettors to conduct extensive research before betting on sports.
- UK football bettors (72.52%) are among the highest groups recommending research to first-time bettors, possibly due to poor outcomes from relying solely on gut feelings.
- Edinburgh bettors have the highest awareness (75.86%) that early success with gut-based betting can be risky, indicating a strong recognition of its potential to lead to losses.
- Millennials and Generation Y (72.32%) are the most likely to encourage first-time bettors to research rather than rely on instincts, suggesting they’ve learned from their own experiences.
Do Bettors Using Their Instincts Continue to Do So Even After Losses?
Our study reveals that just over half of UK bettors will stop trusting their gut after a poor result. However, 1 in 5 admitted that a disappointing outcome won’t shake their faith in their instincts.
Our analysis further suggests that the older you are, the more likely you are to be set in your ways, with half of The Silent Generation (50%) telling us that even poor results won’t change their tactics.
Further key findings:
- Generation Z (58.91%) learn the most from their mistakes, being less likely to listen to their gut. after a loss or bad result.
- Female bettors (56.17%) are less likely than men (51.05%) to listen to their gut after experiencing a loss or bad result.
- Punters in Belfast are most likely to still rely on gut feeling after bad results (40%).
- UK bettors betting on tennis (62.96%) are the least likely to revert back to betting on instinct after a loss.
The Gut Instinct Success Rate
Do Bettors Believe Their Success Rate Is Better With Gut-Instinct Betting or Research-Driven Betting?
Despite the results of the study, terrifyingly, over a third of UK bettors —36.33%—still believe that their instincts yield better results than relying on data and analysis, with over half confident in the accuracy of their gut feeling when betting. Our research also shows that scousers are the most confident in the accuracy of their gut feeling or instincts when betting.
In contrast, only a quarter of Brits think that following their gut leads to fewer wins.
Bojana Djordjevic, Head of Editorial Content at AskGamblers, gives a suggested reasoning for this:
The appealing thing about instinctive betting is that it feels personal. Think of people using their loved ones’ birthday date in the lottery—the emotional weight tied to these choices makes any win difficult to forget. It is this connection that often fosters an unrealistic loyalty to gut feelings.
Our Final Bit of Advice
Betting using your gut instincts or intuition is inherently unpredictable, biased, and ultimately unreliable. Relying on intuition for sports betting can be both financially and emotionally draining, often resulting in more harm than gain. The risks far outweigh the rewards, as gut-based betting frequently leads bettors astray.
To mitigate the risks associated with intuition-based betting, it’s crucial to adopt a more analytical approach. Here’s our tips on the most effective way to bet:
- Conduct your research: Research players, horses, teams, and historical data. Understanding who and what you’re betting on, along with current trends, can give you valuable insight and improve your chance of winning.
- Use statistical tools: Use statistical tools and betting models that analyse past performance and predict future outcomes.
- Consult experts: Consider consulting betting experts or joining betting communities where you can exchange insights and strategies.
- Be pro-rationality: Irrational choices usually lead to losses. Keep records of your bets and why you chose these decisions. If you can’t justify it, it’s time to take a break.
- Set limits: Establish clear betting limits and stick to them. Avoid chasing losses or increasing bets based on a feeling that “things will turn around.” Once again, if your gut says that a win is just around the corner, ignore it. Your intuition can be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
By shifting from gut instinct to a more analytical and research-based approach, you can enhance your chances of success and make more informed, rational decisions.
